2011 Oscar Predictions

These are my Oscar Predictions for 2011, keep in mind I've yet to see "Winter's Bone", "The Kings Speech", "127 Hours", and "Never Let Me Go", so I may be a bit tainted. Otherwise, though, I'm quite well versed in the top movies of the year. So here we go...

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win - The Social Network

Should Win - The Social Network

Why? Sorkin took a story that I initially thought trite and hacky and crafted it into a masterfully portrayed, riveting story.

Watch Out For - True Grit, 127 Hours, Never Let Me Go, Winter's Bone

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Win - Inception

Should Win - Inception

Why? The most original film of the year. It was complex, multi-layered, easy to follow, and continues to make me think months after watching it. Film-making at its finest.

Watch Out For - The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win - Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Should Win - Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Why? Bale's range as an actor can never be questioned. He magnificently portrayed a crack addicted ex-fighter with close bonds to his mother and younger brother.

Watch Out For - Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win - Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Should Win - Steinfeld, Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right)

Why? Because I'm spineless. I loved all three of the performances equally, but for different reasons. Steinfeld held her own against the likes of Bridges, Damon, and Brolin. Leo was perfect and Moore was incredibly intriguing.

Best Actor:

Will Win - Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

Should Win - Colin Firth

Why? Haven't seen the movie, but apparently he was great. Ha. I respect the critics enough to know that their glowing reviews in such quantity must mean something.

Watch Out For - Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), James Franco (127 Hours)

Best Actress:

Will Win - Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Should Win - Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)

Why? Portman was brilliant. Her performance, flawless. If she won I would be quite pleased and unable to argue. But, Bening was phenomenal in a more "real" way. I felt that Black Swan was un-relatable and thus, it makes me harder to laud Portman's work. Bening, on the other hand, gave a moving and steadfast performance. Plus, she deserves an Oscar.

Best Director:

Will Win - David Fincher (The Social Network)

Should Win - Christopher Nolan (Inception)

Why? Inception was a 10-year-in-the-making masterpiece. Nolan flat out deserves it. The other movies were great and the other nominees will all - probably - be very worthy names, but Nolan takes the cake this year.

Watch Out For - Danny Boyle (127 Hours), Coen Brothers (True Grit), Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)

Best Picture:

I'm just going to do my personal list of my favorite movies, with a star next to the "will win".

1. Inception

2. The Social Network*

3. The Town

4. The Fighter

5. Black Swan

6. The Kids Are All Right

7. True Grit

8. Shutter Island

9. Easy A

10. Rabbit Hole

It's not Bipartisanship, its Betrayal

Unsurprisingly, Obama folded under Republican pressures and watched the $250K+ club tax relief continue. Whether you realize it or not, this country is headed toward financial ruins and that very well may have been the nail in the coffin. Certainly, this is hard to believe when the Jayson Werth's of the world are commanding $130mil, and stock index levels have jolted slightly, but believe it or not unemployment is actually predicted to rise and the relief for the jobless to fall. Something seems wrong about that. President Obama campaigned on a message of hope and hope is exactly what he is sucking out of millions of Americans, just before the Holiday season.

Did Obama campaign on a bipartisan agenda, as well? Certainly. And, I would willingly concede that being able to reach across the aisle, is not just an important political skill, but also something all great leaders are able to do. However, any great leader would tell you that you do not do so at the cost of forsaking your greatest convictions. Obama is playing the fool now and is making everyone who campaigned and argued on his behalf - ahem - look stupid. Not only that, but he has taken the very dangerous step in letting the GOP set the agenda for the nation. Talk about showing weakness.

I mentioned in my previous blog entry how foolish it would be to end jobless benefits. I read today a jarring statistic, which essentially states that each $1.00 pumped into jobless benefits injects $1.60 back into the economy. Seems like a worthwhile investment, no? Obama knows this as well as anyone, his arguments prior to the election were incredibly convincing and emboldened, he had a hard stance: The tax breaks for the $250K + club are bad for the economy. So, why is he bending now? He has completely betrayed his supporters. Each day it becomes more and more clear that Mrs. Clinton was correct and Obama was not ready for the big time. This is not what we put him in Washington to do.

Democrats Should Show Fight

If the Democratic party is going to stand up to the GOP at all, this is the time. Just because they won the midterm elections doesn't mean you roll over and surrender complete control to them. Do you want cooperation and support down the road? Yeah, sure. I guess. But, if it means not just extending the Bush tax cuts, but making them permanent, than under absolutely no circumstances do you allow this to happen. In fact, if these tax cuts do become permanent it will be nearly impossible for even the staunchest base Democrat supporters to have faith in anyone in public office. Period.

What do the tax cuts mean to Americans, you ask? Well, here is a very simple break down from the great Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post, who writes:

Here's what [the Republicans] argue: Extend the tax cuts for the richest Americans - in fact, make them permanent. Doing so would increase the deficit by $700 billion over the next decade, but this doesn't matter. We did tell you that we're the party of fiscal responsibility, however, so to prove it we'll block the extension of unemployment benefits for millions of jobless workers. Three weeks before Christmas.

In other words, there's no additional money in the national coffers for the victims of the most devastating recession since the Great Depression. But to help investment bankers start the new year right, perhaps with a new Mercedes or a bit of sun in the Caribbean? Step right up, and we'll write you a check.

Is this the type of garbage that anyone who voted Democrat in the midterms, or has ever voted Democrat, or has any liberal leanings, or really, any common sense is going to overlook? I really don't see how it would be possible. This one, in my mind falls on Obama, he is the leader of the party. It's time to rally up the troops and crush this in its tracks.

Anybody who has taken any type of Economics course in their life, or even has any sense of how an economy works, or how real world lives are impacted by a complete halt of financial support knows that ending jobless benefits HURTS THE ECONOMY. Think about it, people without any source of revenue take the money given to them by the government and funnel it directly into the economy. This is the money they use to pay rent, buy food, clothes, gifts, make car payments, etc. How is ending that going to help the economy at all?

But, alas, -and I hate to be cynical - the Republicans are not even that clueless to think the tax relief for the wealthiest Americans is actually good for the economy. So why be so adamant it get pushed through? The answer is simple. One, it stops a Democratic agenda, weakens the presidents resume, and what they hope will limit him to one term. Not to mention their chief donators are the ones benefiting most from the tax relief. So, this one falls squarely on Obama's shoulders. The Republicans are crippling the economy, stepping on the little man, and trying to drag Obama out of office after one term. Time for Obama, and the rest of the Democrats, to show some fight and kill the bill. No pun intended. But, I liked it.

Wikileaks, Whistleblowers, and You

The haymakers levied by the Wikileaks phenomenon and the repercussions that will potentially ensue are obviously not to be taken lightly, but the fact is, most people find the breadth of information both boring and overwhelming. Who am I to disagree with that? I have taken a keen interest in politics, but will be the first to admit I care a lot more about gearing up for a playoff run in fantasy football, or the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. But, I also think it's important that people really understand what is going on with Wikileaks and how it could and probably will impact each and every industry.

So, first and foremost, check out the Forbes interview with Julian Assange, wherein which Assange reveals his plan to unleash a potentially devastating blow to one (unnamed) major American bank at some point in early 2011. In a decade that will be marked most prominently by the prevalence of the internet - the new Wild West - it was only a matter of time before whistleblowers were given a safe haven to dump information leaks that cripple public and private entities alike. In the Forbes interview, Assange claims to have "dirt" on just about every industry you can think of, ranging from governmental agencies, energy, and finance. So, what do businesses do with the new threat of whistleblowing in the form of cyber-dumps? I don't know. Maybe they hope that the public is so inundated with the leaks that they become jaded and don't hold them accountable. Or perhaps, they hope that those who find Assange and other whistleblowers to be scum-of-the-earth types will write off anything they say in the first place. But, when it comes time to answer for their crimes and/or wrongdoings, what will they do? Well, hopefully they'll start to adopt fair and honest practices.

Transparency is always stressed in most every business, Wikileaks is almost forcing the hand of transparency, which, in my opinion, isn't a bad thing. I find Assange to be a self-indulgent, egomaniac more than the rogue arbiter of justice he bills himself as, but at the end of the day, I would have to say that I kind of fall on his side of the debate on transparency. The only real issue is that Assange is basically out of control with his grandstanding and self-perpetuating-hype that he is turning the leaks into a circus and made-for-TV-scandal, instead of a tool for accountability. But, if your company stresses and enforces integrity, then you won't have any issue with Wikileaks' existence.

Thirsty Turtle: The End of an Era

With the recent stabbings that occurred at the Thirsty Turtle in College Park, rumors are swirling that the polarizing bar will be shut down for serving alcohol to minors. The Turtle has long been known as the easiest spot to utilize your fake I.D. in the region (I've always said that if a girl had a pulse, she could show the bouncer a baseball card and he'd let her in.) The bar is generally packed on Thurs-Sat nights, but also on their $2 pitcher night on Tuesdays and has a reputation for being a "freshman bar" as well as a place to meet women of "ill repute" whom one could take home with little to no effort.

Many in College Park, however, are completely oblivious to the overt racism that goes on at this establishment. Being a person with a diverse set of friends and, as has been on display in this blog for years, a keen sense of racial relations, I was quick to notice the way the bar treats it's non-white patrons. For instance, the bar on most nights has a policy that you must be a student at the University of Maryland to gain entrance, however, white people are never asked to show student I.D.'s while, specifically black and latino people are. I have seen on a number of occasions, droves of white people - most of whom were clearly underage - enter the bar with no hassle at all, while a black friend of mine was given trouble beyond belief at the door. On one particular night, a black friend of mine who attends another University had gained entrance earlier in the night, paid his $5 cover, and shown a legitimate I.D. to get in. When he returned a half hour after leaving the bar, he was told he would not be able to re-enter because he was not a student. No refund was given. He was told that if he did not leave, they would call the police. On another, even more egregiously racist occasion, I witnessed two UMD students in line at the same time, one a white student, one a latino student. Both wearing white t-shirts. The white student showed both forms of I.D. and was let in. The latino student does the same, but was told he may not enter due to a policy they have wherein which "no white T's are allowed".

So, while even the staunchest Turtle-goers would concede there is a certain "douche-factor" to the place, they can write that off as a sort of charm. The racist practices, though, can not be written off. It amazes me how few people are even aware of this, but that really just goes to show how most people are generally only concerned with themselves and their own trivial life-dramas. I'd also like to point out that I don't blame the bouncers for this, because I am positive that they were trained to do exactly that. I personally would never work a job that would require such practices, but, I'm not going to knock a guy for making a buck. This clearly came from management, and management is now getting exactly what they deserve. So sure, I feel bad for the people who made their living at that bar, the people who got enjoyment out of going there every weekend, etc. but am I outraged or even slightly bothered by the place getting closed? No chance. Good riddance, I say.

Still on iTunes

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2 Guys 1 Mac - Midnight Episode

What Happened to College Park? Harry Potter Hotties, Chu's Clues, and much more. Enjoy it!

http://www.fileden.com/files/2007/5/3/1044633//Episode 2 - Midnight Show.mp3