Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win - The Social Network
Should Win - The Social Network
Why? Sorkin took a story that I initially thought trite and hacky and crafted it into a masterfully portrayed, riveting story.
Watch Out For - True Grit, 127 Hours, Never Let Me Go, Winter's Bone
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win - Inception
Should Win - Inception
Why? The most original film of the year. It was complex, multi-layered, easy to follow, and continues to make me think months after watching it. Film-making at its finest.
Watch Out For - The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win - Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Should Win - Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Why? Bale's range as an actor can never be questioned. He magnificently portrayed a crack addicted ex-fighter with close bonds to his mother and younger brother.
Watch Out For - Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win - Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Should Win - Steinfeld, Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right)
Why? Because I'm spineless. I loved all three of the performances equally, but for different reasons. Steinfeld held her own against the likes of Bridges, Damon, and Brolin. Leo was perfect and Moore was incredibly intriguing.
Will Win - Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Should Win - Colin Firth
Why? Haven't seen the movie, but apparently he was great. Ha. I respect the critics enough to know that their glowing reviews in such quantity must mean something.
Watch Out For - Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), James Franco (127 Hours)
Will Win - Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Should Win - Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Why? Portman was brilliant. Her performance, flawless. If she won I would be quite pleased and unable to argue. But, Bening was phenomenal in a more "real" way. I felt that Black Swan was un-relatable and thus, it makes me harder to laud Portman's work. Bening, on the other hand, gave a moving and steadfast performance. Plus, she deserves an Oscar.
Will Win - David Fincher (The Social Network)
Should Win - Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Why? Inception was a 10-year-in-the-making masterpiece. Nolan flat out deserves it. The other movies were great and the other nominees will all - probably - be very worthy names, but Nolan takes the cake this year.
Watch Out For - Danny Boyle (127 Hours), Coen Brothers (True Grit), Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
I'm just going to do my personal list of my favorite movies, with a star next to the "will win".
2. The Social Network*
3. The Town
4. The Fighter
5. Black Swan
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. True Grit
8. Shutter Island
9. Easy A
10. Rabbit Hole