Friday, August 15, 2008

Is This Race Even Close?

In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal Karl Rove, a well-respected (deservedly so) right winged strategist turned politician turned pundit turned analyst, highlighted 4 "battle ground states" where McCain could come out on top and conceivably win the election. It's a good read, especially if you are a staunch McCain backer because it will give you a lot of hope. I'm here to tell you, though, don't buy into this rubbish.

Rove's article

The problem I have with that article is that in a lot of his scenarios he was working off the assumption that McCain is going to carry Florida. I think a lot of people are making this election out to be closer than it really is, last time I looked at the electoral map Obama seemed to be on cruise control. Not only that, but there are foreseeable and almost likely scenarios where Obama could lose Ohio and Florida and still win the election. You have to realize a lot of these Western states are leaning Obama states right now, including Colorado which has seen Obama consistently hold a 3-8 point advantage. Couple that with almost the entire Northwest and Obama is picking up a lot of key states. Also, don't forget about our neighbors in Virginia who could potentially offer some key points in Obama's favor, if those in Northern Virginia (especially Fairfax) turn out in high numbers, and if the strong base of black voters in Richmond and other southwest tip cities in Virginia turn out in record numbers. Virginia is a battle ground state in the truest essence of the word. Then, you have Indiana, another usual right leaning state that is literally a toss-up at this point. A potential dagger for Obama is Michigan. The Dems have really dropped the ball there lately, from the affairs to the money laundering to the botched primary, that state is on the verge of going red, but if Obama can get voter turn out high in Detroit he can still carry that state. So, if Obama has the election so far in control why does CNN, MSNBC, etc. continue to act like this is a race for the ages? In a simple answer, ratings. May we all pray these outlets are unable to canonize McCain right into the white house, giving conservative voters the image that they have a chance in this thing will send the uninspired out in droves, if not because of an unrealistic faith that the party will overcome the Bush administrations ineptitude, then to at least keep a half black man out of the White House. What, Obama supporters can hope for though, is that the frantic "push" McCain is making will send the Dems out to the booths in record numbers to stave off the attack. There is a LONG way to go in this and these polls really aren't as significant until after the convention, but if you look at the raw data right now, this race isn't that close and doesn't deserve that much attention.

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